Fall & Winter Almanac Predictions 2023/2024Oct 02, 2023 01:23PM ● By Aimee Vollmann
For October, the almanac predicts the weather to be cold and wet for the first half of the month, the 16th to 19th to be pleasant fall weather, then the end of the month is expected to be wet with some possible early snowfall over the Adirondacks and Green and White Mountains. The first frost for the Upper Valley area is predicted to be October 7. The first frost is typically a light freeze, 29° to 32°F. Frost dates are only an estimate based on historical climate data, but if you are worried about plants, be sure to check the weather around this date.
The trees have already started to change colors, and with all the rain we’ve had over the summer, it’s not unreasonable to wonder if all this rain will affect the fall foliage. According to the almanac, the best conditions for great fall foliage is a wet growing season, followed by an autumn with lots of sunny days, dry weather, and cold, frostless nights. These conditions produce the most vibrant palette of fall colors. We have had a rainy growing season, so hopefully the wet conditions that are expected to come won’t affect the leaf colors.
The peak leaf foliage for inland New Hampshire is September 28 to October 9 and for coastal New Hampshire, October 5 through 21. For Vermont, the northern half of peak foliage will be from September 24 to October 10, and for southern Vermont, it’s October 5 to 14. If you want to get a good look at the fall foliage, The Old Farmer’s Almanac lists the Kancamagus Scenic Highway in the White Mountains of New Hampshire as having one of the best views.
Winter officially starts on Thursday, December 21, 2023. After an abnormally warm winter last year, traditional temperatures and snowy conditions are expected to return this year. The almanac’s extended forecast predicts calls for below-average temperatures and lots of snowstorms, sleet, and ice, especially in January and February for New England and other parts of the country.
According to almanac, there are indications of an El Niño (a band of warm ocean water that develops off the coast of South America). This is predicted for the latter half of 2023, making it an El Niño winter. Cold temps should continue throughout the country and bring snow, sleet, and ice. The almanac’s winter weather advisory warns of an East Coast storm bringing a wintery mess during the first week of March, as well as a possible late-season snowfall in New England during the third week of April.